The Iran war has entered Day 14 with a significant overnight escalation: Israel launched a fresh "extensive wave" of strikes on Tehran, oil prices surged back above $100 per barrel, and the IEA declared this the largest oil supply disruption in market history. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth claims Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has been wounded and is "on the run," raising acute questions about command continuity in Tehran. In a separate major development, Vladimir Putin formally rejected the US-proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine today — hours after Russia launched its deadliest missile strike on Kyiv in months, killing 13 civilians. The convergence of two active major-power conflicts, a global oil shock, and the most severe humanitarian crises in decades across Gaza, Sudan, and sub-Saharan Africa constitutes a stress test for the international system of historic proportions.
As of Friday morning March 13 — Day 14 of Operation Epic Fury — Israel has launched what its military is calling a new "extensive wave" of air attacks on Iran's capital Tehran, leaving the city covered in thick smoke. Al Jazeera, Day 14 The Strait of Hormuz is now formally closed to US- and Israel-linked ships, with other vessels required to obtain Iranian permission to pass. Brent crude has surged back above $100 per barrel as a result. Al Jazeera
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed publicly for the first time that several Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in Israeli strikes. Al Jazeera live This is a notable strategic signal: deliberate targeting of scientific and technical personnel responsible for Iran's nuclear programme marks a qualitative shift in the campaign's objectives beyond the conventional military infrastructure struck in earlier days.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a striking public claim on Friday, stating that Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is "wounded and likely disfigured," and adding that "his father: dead, he's scared, he's injured, he's on the run and he lacks legitimacy." ABC News live Hegseth went on to say: "With every passing hour, we know and we know they know, that the military capabilities of their evil regime are crumbling. They can barely communicate, let alone coordinate." These claims are unverified by independent sources; Iranian state media has not acknowledged any injury to Khamenei. Iran's internet connectivity reportedly dropped to 4% of ordinary levels as of Day 13. Wikipedia / 2026 Iran war
Iran's UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani: at least 1,348 civilians killed, ages eight months to 88 years old. Al Jazeera In Lebanon: 687 killed; 820,000+ displaced — many sleeping on Beirut's streets, with displacement outstripping shelter capacity. In Israel: 12 killed. Seven US soldiers killed; 8 seriously injured (Pentagon). NPR UNHCR: up to 3.2 million Iranians displaced since February 28 — described as a "preliminary assessment" likely to continue rising. NPR/UNHCR
Iranian strikes across the Gulf have intensified sharply in the past 24 hours. Kuwait's international airport was damaged in a drone attack; six electricity transmission lines went out after intercepted drone debris fell on infrastructure; and a residential building was struck, wounding two people. Al Jazeera, Day 13 In Dubai, a drone fell on a building near the Creek Harbour luxury neighbourhood. Four Bahraini citizens were arrested on charges of spying for Iran's IRGC. Saudi Arabia intercepted 10 drones over its eastern region, then destroyed an additional 28 that breached its airspace; a satellite image confirmed fire at the Ras Tanura oil refinery. Oman's Salalah port sustained drone-strike damage to fuel tanks; two people were killed by drone debris in Sohar province overnight. Al Jazeera, Day 14
In a significant escalation of the maritime front, two foreign oil tankers in Iraqi territorial waters near Basra were set ablaze by an Iranian attack, killing at least one person with 38 crew members rescued. Iran claimed responsibility for one of the tankers. Iraq subsequently suspended all oil terminal operations — the first oil-related strike in Iraqi waters and the first time Iraqi oil infrastructure has been directly implicated in the conflict. CNN, Day 13 NPR Australia ordered all non-essential officials to leave the UAE and Israel and urged citizens to evacuate the Middle East. Qatar's airspace was officially closed; Qatar Airways is operating 29 special flights to repatriate stranded residents.
A US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq on March 12–13, killing at least four crew members. CENTCOM confirmed the incident occurred over "friendly territory" while the crew was on a combat mission, and was not the result of hostile or friendly fire. A second KC-135 was involved in the same incident — it was damaged but landed safely in Israel. General Dan Caine said the incident is being treated as an "active rescue and recovery mission." ABC News live Wikipedia / 2026 Iran war The Islamic Resistance in Iraq separately claimed responsibility for shooting down a plane — a claim contradicted by CENTCOM's "non-hostile" determination, though the situation remains under investigation.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly outlined three conditions to end the war: recognition of Tehran's "legitimate rights," payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression. Al Jazeera, Day 13 These conditions are currently irreconcilable with the US-Israeli position, which has not publicly acknowledged any framework for negotiations. The gap between the two sides' starting positions remains very wide.
Iran's new Supreme Leader invoked Al Quds Day — the annual pro-Palestinian rally — calling citizens into the streets of Tehran on Friday March 13, even as Israeli strikes were underway in the capital. Senior Iranian officials including Pezeshkian, national security chief Ali Larijani, and judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i attended the march, which drew large crowds despite explosions rocking the neighbourhood. One woman was killed in a strike during the march; Iranian state media blamed the US and Israel. CNN live, Mar 13
| Dimension | Yesterday (Mar 12) | Today (Mar 13) — Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Iranian civilian deaths | ~1,300 | 1,348 (confirmed by UN envoy) ↑ |
| Iranians displaced | Estimated 3 million+ | 3.2 million (UNHCR official figure) ↑ |
| Brent crude | ~$85–90/barrel | Above $100/barrel ↑ ↑ |
| Strait of Hormuz | Disrupted (mining threat) | Formally closed to US/Israel-linked ships ↑ |
| US military fatalities | 7 killed | 7 + 4 (KC-135 crash) = 11 total ↑ |
| Gulf countries struck | Bahrain, UAE, Saudi, Oman, Kuwait | Same + Dubai airport area, Iraq oil terminals ↑ |
| Iran supreme leader status | Mojtaba Khamenei — first statement issued | Claimed wounded/disfigured (Hegseth — unverified) |
| IEA warning | Emergency reserves released | "Largest supply disruption in market history" declared ↑ |
In a major diplomatic development on March 13, Vladimir Putin formally stated that "there are issues which need to be solved" before Russia could agree to a ceasefire — effectively rejecting the US-proposed 30-day unconditional ceasefire that Ukraine had accepted. Wikipedia / Peace Negotiations As part of the plan, the Trump administration had resumed all military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, and Secretary of State Rubio said the ball was now "in Russia's court." Pro-Kremlin senator Konstantin Kosachev responded bluntly: "Russia is advancing on the battlefield, so it will be different with Russia. Any agreements should be on our terms." Hours after the ceasefire proposal, Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other regions, killing 13 Ukrainian civilians — the deadliest such strike in months. Trump responded on social media: "Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP!"
US-brokered trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia — which had reached tentative progress at Geneva on February 17–18 — are now effectively on hold due to the growing Middle East escalation, which has pulled US diplomatic and military attention away from Europe. Euronews, Mar 10, 2026 On March 3, Zelenskyy said the next round of trilateral meetings could be postponed "for a while due to the war in the Middle East." Wikipedia / Geneva Meetings
On the battlefield, conflicting claims persist. Russia continues launching drone and missile strikes: four people were killed and at least 16 injured after a Russian aerial attack struck the centre of Sloviansk. Russia launched 137 drones overnight; Ukraine's air force downed 122. Ukrainian missiles struck Bryansk in western Russia, killing at least six civilians. Euronews Meanwhile, the Carnegie Endowment's latest analysis reveals that the Ukrainian side is increasingly divided behind closed doors over whether to withdraw from parts of the Donbas — a major political shift. Carnegie Endowment, Feb 2026
At the January 6 Paris summit, the UK and France pledged to "establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment" in the event of a ceasefire. The US backed a ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism based on drones, sensors, and satellites — not US ground troops. Ukraine has agreed to a multi-tiered ceasefire enforcement plan in which any Russian breach triggers a 24-hour escalation ladder ending in a coordinated Western military response. Al Jazeera, Jan 6, 2026 Modern Diplomacy, Feb 3, 2026 The framework now hinges entirely on whether Russia can be brought to the table — which today's rejection makes increasingly unlikely in the short term.
The International Energy Agency has issued its starkest warning to date, describing the Iran war as causing the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," with supplies projected to drop by 8 million barrels per day this month. CNN, Day 13 Brent crude has surged back above $100/barrel — reversing the moderate decline from the $107 peak achieved on March 8 following the initial IEA emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels. The flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to what the IEA describes as "a trickle."
Iraq's suspension of all oil terminal operations following the Basra tanker attacks adds a new supply-side shock on top of the Hormuz closure. Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer. Simultaneously, Qatar's airspace closure and LNG disruption is tightening global gas markets; Oman's Salalah port damage disrupts a key transshipment hub for Asia-bound cargo. The simultaneous closure or degradation of multiple Gulf energy nodes is compressing global supply in ways that the IEA's emergency reserve release can only partially offset. Iran has warned that oil prices could "double" — which would mean Brent approaching $200/barrel, a level that would trigger a global recession. NPR, Day 13
No major developments in the Indo-Pacific in the past 24 hours directly alter the baseline assessment. China's posture on the Iran war remains diplomatically assertive but militarily non-interventionist. Beijing has condemned the strikes as lacking UN Security Council authorization. Trump's potential visit to China in coming weeks — if it proceeds — will be the key diplomatic signal to watch. The diversion of US military attention and assets to the Middle East is being closely watched in Taipei and across the Indo-Pacific alliance network.
The US Embassy in Jerusalem has issued a shelter-in-place notification for all Americans in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, urging those who can to depart on commercial flights. Consular services remain suspended through at least March 13. US Embassy Jerusalem, Mar 12, 2026 All crossings into Gaza except Kerem Shalom remain closed as they have been since February 28. Medical evacuations are on hold; 46% of essential medicines and 66% of medical consumables are out of stock. UNRWA SitRep #212
A significant parallel crisis has emerged: Israeli authorities have moved to bar 37 international NGOs from operating in Gaza and the West Bank, requiring organizations to hand over biometric staff data as a registration condition. Aid groups argue this violates humanitarian neutrality principles and exposes Palestinian staff to retaliation. The Israeli Supreme Court issued a temporary injunction on February 27 after 17 groups filed appeals, freezing the ban — but the legal status of these organizations remains precarious. Human Rights Watch, Feb 24, 2026 Al Jazeera, Feb 25, 2026
The House of Commons Library's March 2026 briefing documents that Israeli forces currently control just over half of Gaza and Hamas retains its weapons in the Strip. Stage 2 of the October 2025 framework — announced by US envoy Steve Witkoff on January 14 — has stalled. Israeli parliamentary elections are due by October 2026; Netanyahu's coalition is tracking at only 50–51 seats in polls, suggesting the political landscape could shift. HoC Library, Mar 2026 CNN live
No major battlefield changes in Sudan in the past 24 hours, but the strategic backdrop is worsening. The Council on Foreign Relations' 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey ranked Sudan as the most likely conflict contingency to escalate in 2026 of all 30 global contingencies surveyed. CFR 2026 The RSF is attempting to seize Kordofan from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), with near-daily drone strikes on civilian infrastructure — markets, health facilities, residential buildings. The Quad roadmap (US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) for peace has made "limited progress," constrained by divergent Arab priorities. The UAE continues to be implicated in supplying the RSF; Saudi Arabia backs the SAF; Egypt backs the SAF. Chatham House, Jan 2026
A Brookings analysis published in February 2026 documents the regional dimensions of Sudan's conflict: Sudan borders seven countries; the Nile convergence at Khartoum threatens Egypt's water security; Port Sudan on the Red Sea is a key global trade node. The UAE's purchase of Sudanese gold — estimated at $13.4 billion — is described as the financial "lifeblood" of the RSF's war effort. Brookings, Feb 2026 South Sudan's parallel collapse — with Riek Machar arrested, famine conditions spreading, and 10 million people needing assistance — creates a converging Horn of Africa crisis that analysts fear could merge into a single regional catastrophe. Foreign Policy, Dec 31, 2025
No major overnight developments in the Balkans. The baseline assessment from yesterday's edition stands: the European Parliament adopted its landmark enlargement report on March 11 arguing the cost of not enlarging exceeds the cost of admission; Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners; Bosnia and Serbia face structural obstruction. The IFRI conference on EU enlargement and the Western Balkans is scheduled for March 20. IFRI, Mar 20 event Hungary's April 2026 elections remain the key near-term variable for the EU's internal enlargement politics.
No major new developments in Mexico in the past 24 hours. Cartel succession dynamics following El Mencho's February 22 killing continue to play out across 20+ states. The International Crisis Group's 2026 conflict watch placed Mexico (specifically the risk of US military strikes on criminal groups) in Tier II of US national security priorities — elevated from prior years, reflecting the Trump administration's stated willingness to conduct unilateral action inside Mexico. ICG, Jan 2026 The FIFA World Cup host-city risk (Guadalajara) remains a live concern as the June competition approaches.
South Africa's Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola held a major press briefing on March 11, 2026, condemning the US-Israel strikes on Iran as a violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter and calling on the UN Security Council to "prioritise humanity over geopolitical preferences." South Africa also reiterated its AU leadership role on South Sudan. South African Government, Mar 11, 2026 This statement reflects a broader African diplomatic posture of non-alignment with the US-Israel action, consistent with South Africa's ICJ genocide case against Israel.
The International Crisis Group's 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 highlights an emerging Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict risk that could tip the Horn of Africa into "all-out conflagration." Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accuses Eritrea of training and arming anti-government militias; Eritrea fears Ethiopia's quest for Red Sea port access — which would require reconquering Eritrean territory. Ethiopia is simultaneously providing logistical support to Sudan's UAE-backed RSF, while Eritrea backs the SAF — meaning the Sudan war and a potential Ethiopia-Eritrea war are connected by a web of proxy relationships. ICG, Jan 2026
The New Humanitarian's January 2026 analysis notes that the RSF in Sudan is forming a rival parallel government with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)-North — an offshoot of South Sudan's ruling SPLM — effectively fusing the Sudan and South Sudan crises at a political as well as military level. The New Humanitarian, Jan 2026 Amani Africa's signature 2026 assessment describes African conflicts as now resembling "wars of permanence — open-ended struggles sustained by political fragmentation, economic incentives, and geopolitical rivalry." Amani Africa, Jan 15, 2026
The combination of a wounded/incapacitated Supreme Leader (unverified), Iran's formal Hormuz closure, and an IEA "historic disruption" declaration marks a new phase. Watch for: (1) Iranian command-and-control continuity; (2) whether oil hits $120+; (3) any back-channel movement via Oman or Qatar.
Putin's formal rejection of the ceasefire and the simultaneous strike on Kyiv signal that Russia sees the Iran crisis as diplomatic cover to intensify pressure. The US is now managing two simultaneous active conflicts. The ceasefire framework is not dead — but requires a new trigger to revive, possibly economic pain from sanctions or a battlefield shift.
The IEA's "8 million barrels/day" drop projection is catastrophic if sustained. The $400M reserve release will not cover it. Stagflation risk is now elevated to a near-term probability rather than a tail risk. Watch central bank responses in the next two weeks; the Fed and ECB face impossible trade-offs.
Both Gaza's blockade and Sudan's civil war risk becoming geopolitically orphaned as the world focuses on Iran. The South Africa press briefing signals that the Global South is watching and will hold the US and its allies accountable at the UN — but lacks enforcement leverage. The Horn of Africa Ethiopia-Eritrea risk remains the most underreported flashpoint globally.