The global security environment has deteriorated sharply over the past two weeks. A major new armed conflict erupted on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran — killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering regional escalation across nine countries. The Russia–Ukraine war enters its fifth year against a backdrop of renewed peace diplomacy and shifting battlefield dynamics. Secondary flashpoints — Sudan's catastrophic civil war, the Gaza humanitarian collapse, Mexico's post-El Mencho cartel succession crisis, EU enlargement stagnation in the Western Balkans, and a worsening polycrisis in sub-Saharan Africa — are unfolding simultaneously. The World Economic Forum's 2026 Global Risks Report identified geoeconomic confrontation, armed conflict, and societal fragmentation as the three dominant near-term global risks. All three are now simultaneously active.
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a surprise coordinated campaign — designated Operation Epic Fury — targeting military, government, and nuclear-linked infrastructure across Iran. The opening strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at his compound in Tehran, along with several senior Iranian military and IRGC commanders. Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei's death on March 1 and declared 40 days of national mourning. On March 8, the Assembly of Experts elected Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor, drawing international scrutiny given his lack of established political standing.
As of Day 13 (March 12), the US claims to have struck over 5,000 targets inside Iran, including missile production facilities, naval assets, and elements of Iran's nuclear programme. Iran has launched counter-strikes against Israel and at least 27 US military installations across nine countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Cyprus. On March 11, a joint Iran–Hezbollah attack struck more than 50 Israeli targets over five hours.
Iran reports over 1,300 civilians killed. At least 7 US service members have been killed and approximately 140 wounded. Israel has reported 13 killed and nearly 1,930 wounded. Gulf-state casualties include at least 17 across Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. A strike on a girls' school in southern Iran on February 28 reportedly killed approximately 160 students and staff — Human Rights Watch has called for a war crimes investigation.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global oil passes — and has deployed mine-laying vessels to the waterway, though the US claims to have destroyed 16 of these. Brent crude surged from $73 on February 27 to $107 on March 8, a 40%+ spike in 10 days. The IEA responded with a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Russia is confirmed by Western intelligence to be providing Iran with tactical drone guidance, even as US back-channel diplomacy runs in parallel via envoy Steve Witkoff and Kremlin counterpart Kirill Dmitriev.
| Dimension | Status | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Combat Operations | Active | Day 13; no ceasefire imminent |
| Strait of Hormuz | Disrupted | Commercial traffic heavily reduced; mining threat ongoing |
| Oil Markets | Volatile | Brent ~$85–90 as of March 12; IEA reserve release dampening spike |
| Iran Leadership | In Transition | Mojtaba Khamenei installed March 8; domestic legitimacy contested |
| Hezbollah / Lebanon | Escalating | Joint 5-hour attack on 50+ Israeli targets, March 11 |
| Diplomacy | Limited | China, Russia, France in contact with Iran on ceasefire; no framework yet |
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has entered its fifth year, making it Russia's longest continuous major war since the 18th century. Over the four-week period ending March 10, Russian forces lost 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory — a reversal from the 182 square miles gained the preceding month. Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState reported February 2026 was the first month since 2024 in which Ukraine recaptured more territory than it lost. Ukrainian forces have consolidated counteroffensive gains in the Oleksandrivka direction and cleared approximately 400 square kilometers in recent operations.
Russia still controls roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory. Total estimated Russian military casualties have crossed 1,000,000 killed and wounded. Ukraine's own casualties stand at an estimated 250,000–300,000 killed and wounded. More than two-thirds of Ukraine's energy production capacity has been destroyed, damaged, or occupied since late 2024.
Trump and Zelensky are reported to have reached agreement on 90–95% of a peace framework. A "Coalition of the Willing" of 35 countries issued the Paris Declaration on January 6, providing for ceasefire monitoring, multinational security forces, and long-term military support. European allies have committed $90 billion for 2026–2027. Putin spoke with Trump on March 10 and falsely described Russian forces as "advancing successfully." 66% of Russians now support peace negotiations per the independent Levada Center.
| Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Russian territorial control (total) | ~20% of Ukraine (~45,800 sq mi) |
| Russian losses (Mar 3–10, 2026) | −30 sq mi (Ukraine recapturing ground) |
| Estimated Russian casualties | ~1,000,000+ killed and wounded |
| Russian public supporting peace talks | 66% (Levada Center, Dec 2025) |
| Ukrainian energy infrastructure destroyed/damaged | >65% (Western military estimate) |
| European allied military support (2026–27) | $90 billion committed |
The WEF's Global Risks Report 2026 ranks geoeconomic confrontation as the single greatest near-term risk, with 18% of surveyed experts identifying it as the most likely trigger of a global crisis this year. The weaponization of trade policy, supply chains, and industrial subsidies has become the dominant currency of great-power competition. The Iran crisis has delivered a fresh inflationary shock — shipping costs are climbing, global LNG supply dropped roughly 20%, and stagflation odds for 2026 have reportedly risen to approximately 35% among strategists surveyed by major banks. The expiry of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) in September 2025 without a replacement has meanwhile quietly realigned trade dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa toward Chinese and Gulf partners at US expense.
A Trump–Xi summit held in late 2025 produced a period of relative stability in US–China relations. China's response to the Iran war has been assertive on the diplomatic front: Beijing condemned the US–Israeli strikes as lacking UN Security Council authorization and evacuated over 3,000 Chinese nationals from Iran by March 2. Chinese state media has publicly accused the United States of being the leading source of global instability. A potential Trump–Xi meeting in March could provide a stabilizing signal, but structural tensions over Taiwan, trade, and AI chip controls remain deeply unresolved.
The Gaza conflict is now in its 883rd day since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. UNRWA SitRep #212 reports that between 26 February and 5 March, 18 Palestinians were killed and 41 injured. Since the ceasefire began in October 2025, at least 631 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli military operations. The October 2025 ceasefire framework's Stage 2, which was to include broader Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction, stalled over disagreements on governance and Hamas disarmament.
The onset of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 dramatically worsened Gaza's situation. Israel immediately closed all crossings — including Rafah and Kerem Shalom — citing security adjustments, suspending humanitarian movements, medical evacuations, and staff rotations. UNRWA SitRep #211 confirmed that on February 28, the Israeli authorities closed all crossings into the Gaza Strip, leading to the suspension of medical evacuations and raising concerns about food security and fuel supplies.
According to the Ministry of Health (reported by WHO via UNRWA #212), 46% of essential medicines and 66% of medical consumables are currently out of stock. All crossings except Kerem Shalom remain closed. Medical evacuations are on hold. Humanitarian partners are on high alert amid the regional escalation.
In the occupied West Bank, UNRWA SitRep #212 documents that between October 7, 2023 and March 7, 2026, 1,062 Palestinians — at least 231 of them children — were killed. Three Palestinians were shot and killed by Israeli settlers on March 7, 2026, accounting for six settler-violence deaths since January 2026. Missile fragments and interceptor shrapnel have continued to land across central West Bank governorates. Heightened movement restrictions are in place across the West Bank since February 28.
In January 2026, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced Stage 2 of the October 2025 framework. A Board of Peace and a temporary transitional governing committee for Gaza have been announced, backed by the US and several Arab states. Palestinian groups, including Hamas, are prepared to cede governance to the transitional committee — but Hamas remains critical of the Board of Peace, calling it "international guardianship." The UK hosted a March 2026 conference on the International Peace Fund for Israel and Palestine but has not joined the Board, citing concerns over Russia's potential membership. House of Commons Library, Mar 2026
Sudan's civil war — now past its 1,000th day — has produced what the United Nations and the International Rescue Committee both describe as the largest humanitarian crisis on Earth, the largest displacement emergency in the world, and the largest hunger crisis globally. UN News, Jan 10, 2026 IRC The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted in April 2023 and has spread from Khartoum to Darfur, Kordofan, and Blue Nile regions.
An estimated 33.7 million people — approximately two-thirds of the population — need humanitarian assistance in 2026; Sudan alone accounts for roughly 10% of global humanitarian need. IRC More than 150,000 people have been killed; 13.6 million people are displaced — 9.3 million internally, 4.3 million in neighboring countries. UN News
Over one-third of health facilities (37%) nationwide are non-functional. WHO has verified 201 attacks on healthcare since April 2023, resulting in 1,858 deaths and 490 injuries. Simultaneous outbreaks of cholera, dengue, malaria, measles, and diphtheria are active across multiple states. WHO PHSA, Jan 6, 2026 Eight children were reportedly killed in a single drone attack in North Kordofan in the first week of March. The ICC continues investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur. Human Rights Watch World Report 2026
For the third consecutive year, the IRC's Emergency Watchlist ranks Sudan as the country most at risk of a deteriorating humanitarian crisis. Al Jazeera, Dec 16, 2025 IRC Watchlist 2026 The IRC warns that funding for global humanitarian responses has shrunk by 50% and the international system is in "new world disorder." US aid cuts — including the dismantling of USAID — have forced organizations to scale back essential services to refugees in South Sudan, deepening the cross-border crisis.
South Sudan is simultaneously suffering a return to open conflict. The IRC ranks it third on its global Emergency Watchlist, behind only Sudan and the Occupied Palestinian Territory. IRC South Sudan Update, Jan 28, 2026 An estimated 10 million South Sudanese people need life-saving humanitarian assistance; nearly half of all counties are projected to face famine conditions. An estimated 280,000 people have been displaced since late December 2025 in Jonglei alone, and UNICEF warns 450,000 children are at risk of acute malnutrition from the violence.
The House of Commons Library's March 2026 briefing on EU enlargement provides an authoritative overview of the current accession landscape, noting that EU enlargement dynamics were transformed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which pushed the EU to fast-track candidate status for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia while promising to accelerate Western Balkans accession. House of Commons Library, Mar 2026 However, in practice, candidate states continue to face slow progress. The briefing highlights concerns that Serbia has not aligned with EU sanctions against Russia — a fundamental breach of the Common Foreign and Security Policy expected of candidate states.
The EU's €6 billion Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans (2024–2027) provides a mechanism for disbursing funds conditional on reform milestones. EC Growth Plan for Western Balkans In January 2026, the Commission approved the first release of funds to Serbia — but critics note enforcement of conditionality remains weak. The Atlantic Council's 2025 analysis warned that the Growth Plan's financial support is significantly lower than what EU member states in Southeast Europe received upon accession, limiting its transformative potential. Atlantic Council, May 2025
Analysts warn that delayed accession leaves Western Balkan states vulnerable to Russian and Chinese influence. Serbia's signing of a free-trade agreement with China despite EU objections is the clearest example. Bosnia-Herzegovina faces deep institutional paralysis; secessionist rhetoric from Republika Srpska risks triggering a constitutional crisis the EU would struggle to contain. The Institute for French International Relations (IFRI) is hosting a March 20, 2026 conference specifically examining the strategic stakes of EU enlargement: "The Enlargement of the EU: A Strategic Choice? France, the Western Balkans and the EU in an Uncertain Geopolitical Context." EC Strategy and Reports
On February 22, 2026, Mexican Armed Forces — with US intelligence support via the Joint Interagency Task Force–Counter Cartel — killed Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in a predawn operation in the mountain town of Tapalpa, Jalisco. Al Jazeera, Feb 22, 2026 CNN, Feb 22, 2026 El Mencho had a $15 million USD bounty from the US State Department and is described by the DEA as having led one of the "most powerful and ruthless criminal organizations" in Mexico. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau called the operation "a great development for Mexico, the US, Latin America, and the world." CNN profile, Feb 23, 2026
The killing triggered an immediate and coordinated wave of retaliatory violence. CJNG launched narcobloqueos — burning roadblocks — across more than 20 of Mexico's 32 states. Guadalajara became a ghost town; multiple airlines including Delta, Alaska, American, and Air Canada suspended flights to Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara. At least 25 National Guard members were killed in Jalisco alone on the day of the operation, and more than 85 cartel roadblocks were recorded nationally. CNN live, Feb 23, 2026 The government deployed 10,000 soldiers across 20 states to restore order. Al Jazeera, Feb 24, 2026
El Mencho's entire immediate family line of succession is incapacitated: his son (El Menchito) and daughter are both imprisoned in the US; his brother is also incarcerated. His stepson Juan Carlos González Valencia ("El Pelón") — who headed the cartel's paramilitary wing — is considered the most likely successor. Analyst Chris Dalby of Dyami Security Intelligence warns the CJNG "still has the capacity to set half the country on fire," and that "if his stepson cannot do it, you've got four, five, six commanders all with the money, the power and the men to create their own criminal fiefdoms." Al Jazeera, Feb 23, 2026 Experts draw direct comparisons to the fragmentation following El Chapo's arrest. Al Jazeera explainer, Feb 24, 2026
The CJNG's franchise-based structure — described by the DEA as spanning all 50 US states and operating in more than 40 countries globally — means that El Mencho's removal does not dismantle the underlying business. "El Mencho's removal is like saying that a company is going to fail because you take out the CEO," Dalby told Al Jazeera. "Not at all. The flow of drugs is going to continue." Al Jazeera, Feb 24, 2026 The CJNG's franchise structure — which allowed smaller cells to operate under the cartel's brand and vast financial network — spread cartel unrest to 20 states within hours of El Mencho's death. Al Jazeera analysis, Feb 25, 2026 The timing is particularly sensitive: Guadalajara is a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city for matches scheduled in June.
Africa's political and security trajectory in 2026 is being shaped by what Chatham House describes as "a less predictable international order" in which "weakened multilateral norms, divided international leadership, and intensified great and middle power competition have created a more permissive global environment where external accountability has become secondary to transactional interests." Chatham House, Jan 14, 2026 Despite projected average GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 — making sub-Saharan Africa one of the faster-growing regions globally — the broader economic outlook remains fragile due to high debt burdens, inflationary pressures, tight global credit conditions, and declining official development assistance.
The dismantling of USAID under Trump — compounded by the expiry of AGOA in September 2025 — has reduced US soft power across the continent at a pace no Chinese or Russian action could have matched. Chatham House notes that "the erosion of US trade predictability... and the USAID shutdown are accelerating African efforts to diversify trade, development and security partnerships." Chatham House, Jan 14, 2026 China remains dominant in large-scale infrastructure financing, industrial partnerships, and resource-for-investment models, reinforced by its zero-tariff policy for African products.
In the Sahel, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — all governed by military juntas since coups in 2021–2023 — have expelled French forces, terminated Western security partnerships, and realigned toward Russia's Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) and Beijing. This structural shift is broadly irreversible on a short-term horizon. African responses to US military action in Venezuela are cited by Chatham House as illustrating growing continental concerns over the erosion of sovereignty protections — and the precedent this sets for Africa. Chatham House, Jan 14, 2026
Africa holds approximately 30% of the world's critical minerals — cobalt, lithium, copper, and rare earth elements — making the continent central to the global energy transition and the supply-chain competition between the US, EU, and China. The EU is repositioning through its Global Gateway strategy and critical minerals partnerships, while the US is trying to counter Chinese influence despite self-inflicted soft-power losses. Chatham House's Global Trade conference (March 19, 2026) features a dedicated session on African minerals governance and how foreign direct investment is being weaponized as a trade tool. Chatham House Global Trade 2026
The IRC's 2026 Emergency Watchlist — which places Sudan, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and South Sudan in the top three — notes that of the top 20 crisis countries, the majority are in Africa or contain significant African dimensions (DRC, Ethiopia, Haiti, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, Lebanon). IRC Watchlist 2026 African regional institutions, particularly the AU, enter 2026 internally divided at a moment when coordinated action is most needed. Chatham House notes that "Africa can no longer rely on intermittent international attention to safeguard peace, democracy and economic resilience." Chatham House Africa Programme
The most pressing risk remains Strait of Hormuz closure. Trump has hinted the war will end "soon" but no timeline exists. Iran under Mojtaba Khamenei has thus far rejected ceasefire preconditions. Expect continued energy price volatility, further civilian casualties, and mounting congressional pressure for hearings on war objectives.
A fragile ceasefire is more probable than a comprehensive peace. Russia's domestic pressure is rising but Putin shows no genuine flexibility. The Coalition of the Willing is advancing a security guarantees framework; US ratification is the critical unknown. Ukraine's battlefield reversal in early March provides Zelensky leverage.
Both crises risk being catastrophically sidelined as global attention focuses on the Iran war. Gaza faces a full blockade during its most acute post-ceasefire phase; Sudan needs $3+ billion in emergency humanitarian funding that donors are struggling to provide amid competing priorities.
A successor to El Mencho has not yet emerged; cartel factional fighting is likely over the coming weeks. Rival cartels will test CJNG-held territories. The most volatile period historically follows 30–90 days after a major cartel decapitation. FIFA World Cup timing in June adds a significant international exposure dimension.