May 2, 2026
Edition 34 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
Iran submits new Hormuz-first proposal — nuclear talks deferred; Trump NSC meeting today to review offer · Araghchi meets Putin in St. Petersburg — Russia pledges to do “everything” for Iran; Belousov meets Iran’s deputy defense minister · NPT Review Conference opens today in New York — worst strategic environment since 1968 founding; IAEA blind on Iran 8+ months · IDF strikes Bekaa Valley for first time since Apr 16 ceasefire — Hezbollah’s Qassem declares Lebanon-Israel direct talks “nonexistent to us”
May 2, 2026
Edition 33 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
May 2, 2026
Edition 33 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
Iran opens Hormuz to commercial ships — IRGC permission required; US blockade of Iranian ports remains · Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire holds; IDF strikes motorcycle in south Lebanon post-truce · Second round US-Iran talks confirmed for Pakistan Monday, April 21 · $760M oil futures bet placed 20 minutes before Hormuz announcement — CFTC investigating third such trade
May 2, 2026
Edition 32 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
May 2, 2026
Edition 31 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
May 2, 2026
Edition 30 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
US naval blockade of all Iranian ports active as of 10am ET Monday · Islamabad talks collapse after 21 hours — Vance: “final and best offer” rejected · Iran FM Araghchi: “inches away from MoU, then goalposts shifted” · Macron announces UK-France coalition for Hormuz freedom of navigation conference
May 2, 2026
Edition 28 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
Vance departs for Islamabad — US-Iran direct talks begin Saturday · Hormuz: only 5 ships crossed Thursday; Brent ~$95, strait “effectively closed” · Hezbollah fires 30+ rockets at northern Israel Friday; school struck in Deir al-Asad · CIT hears oral arguments on Section 122 tariffs; ruling could come within days
May 2, 2026
Edition 27 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
Ceasefire collapses within hours: Israel launches 100+ Lebanon strikes in 10 minutes, 300+ killed; Iran reimposed Hormuz; Hezbollah fires 30+ rockets April 9 · JD Vance leads US to Islamabad Saturday; Iran delegation traveling Thursday; enrichment red line irreconcilable as stated · Brent rebounds 4% to $98 as markets confirm Hormuz supervised pause ≠ reopening; Goldman: $100+ if shut another month · CIT Section 122 oral arguments today: if injunction granted, US tariff architecture collapses before July 24
May 2, 2026
Edition 26 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
US-Iran two-week ceasefire in effect — Hormuz reopening, Islamabad talks begin Friday April 10 · Israel excludes Lebanon from ceasefire — central Beirut struck hours after deal; 1,500+ dead · Iran enrichment dispute — Farsi text includes “acceptance of enrichment,” English version omits it; Trump calls it “fraudulent” · Oil crashes 14–16% — WTI ~$95, Brent ~$94; still 30%+ above pre-war levels
May 2, 2026
Edition 25 · Strategic Intelligence Brief
WSO rescued from Iran mountains after 30-hour manhunt — CIA deception campaign, heavy firefight, both F-15E crew now safe · Trump April 6 deadline live — energy infrastructure strikes threatened if Hormuz remains blocked by Monday 8 PM ET · Indonesia buries 3 UNIFIL peacekeepers; 3 more wounded Friday — thousands protest at US Embassy in Jakarta · US 10% global tariff enters force today; 60+ nations face higher rates from April 9 — J.P. Morgan: effective rate now 23%+